Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Perry takes the lead

Texas governor Rick Perry has taken the lead at Intrade, “The World’s Leading Prediction Market,” giving him a 35.0% chance to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012. Mitt Romney came in second with a 27.8% chance. Michele Bachman has a 9.0% chance.

Nate Silver comments on his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New YorkTimes:

“Are the bettors being sensible or getting ahead of themselves? Although this is all fun and games as compared to the debt ceiling debate, a quick overview of the state of play is in order.

“An average of the seven most recent polls of Republican voters (the six contained in the Real Clear Politics average plus the Economist / YouGov poll) finds Mr. Romney with the lead, with an average of 22 percent of the vote. After that, there’s essentially a four-way tie between Ms. Bachmann (13 percent), Sarah Palin (13 percent), Mr. Perry (12 percent) and Rudolph W. Giuliani (11 percent in the polls in which he is included). Herman Cain’s momentum appears to have faded, while Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty are now often polling in the low rather than the high single digits.”

Based on Gallup numbers, Mr. Perry is recognized by only slightly more than half of Republican voters, writes Silver. Of those who recognize his name, 21 percent list him as their first choice, just slightly behind Mr. Romney at 25 percent.

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