Tuesday, March 27, 2007

In the End: Clark vs. Giuliani

by Bernie Quigley - Daily Kos diary 3/27/07

This week, the Washington Post has a big front-page story on Mike Bloomberg, Mayor of New York, possibly running as an independent candidate for President in '08. This story is almost identical in content to an article run by the New York Sun a few weeks ago, several run in The Free Market News in the past year and one in New York magazine last fall.

There is no new news to this story. It is akin to the array of “Hillary not running!” stories sent out week upon week by the likes of Cable News Network, bored and disinterested in the everyday workings of democracy in the ’06 races and seeking instead celebrity. But what it implies is that here today in Political Cloud Cookooland, the MSM is getting tired of Hillary, Obama, Edwards and McCain. Like Gilligan’s Island, you can only rerun these stories so many times. They are no longer interesting and there are no more non-stories out there to tell again.

So they're starting to work on Bloomberg. Mike Bloomberg is after all one of the most interesting and savvy guys ever to sleep in Gracie Mansion. And as with Rudi Giuliani, the Yankee hat fits. And there is something about either one of these guys which could restore New York City to its primacy in the wake of 9/11 and in the end, it may be our fate to do so.

At least a year back now, Bloomberg said he would run if both parties put forth "extreme" candidates. He seemed then to be suggesting Hillary Clinton and George Allen, the Virginia Senator who recently lost his office to Jim Webb. More recently he added McCain to that formula, saying it depends on which McCain runs – (the McCain who stood up against the undue influence of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, or the one who now grovels before them).

I think Bloomberg could well enter now if it goes Hillary vs. McCain. I do not think he will enter if it goes Hillary vs. Giuliani. What Bloomberg is doing is an act of corrective citizenship. No need. And now Giuliani is rising hard against McCain. And his “Draft Giuliani” site says he is nine points ahead of Hillary and he hasn’t even entered the race yet.

We are leaving now the Beginning and entering the Middle. I don't think we are getting to xyz yet as per the Greek chorus which is the MSM. I think we are just leaving the Beginning and getting to the Middle.

Hillary will survive the stress-free Beginning and absorb the Edwards/Obama energy.

The Middle will begin when Giuliani enters. He will rapidly surpass McCain and take the Republican nomination.

And Giuliani will bring the first real challenge to the Democrats: They will have to ask themselves if this trajectory they have been on these past 12 years with the Democratic Leadership Council is not now a one-way ticket to Palookaville. A candidate like Senator Clinton with a 46% negative ceiling had no chance against McCain. Against Giuliani, a candidate with 9/11 karma and cache and New York street smarts, a Clinton candidacy will bring a total and probably final breakdown of the Democratic Party with the loss of 50 states. This will be the Democrats fourth (and last) catastrophic failure in the post-war period. (But there is something in Democrats which likes to lose; it calls the failure of Adlai Stevenson a success; it calls the McGovern failure a success; it calls the Howard Dean failure a success. And it will call the Hillary failure a success.)

I do not believe Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will let this happen on their watch. When Giuliani rises, the new ’06 Democratic Congress will have to assert itself and call for a real First Tier contender.

By June, when Giuliani is 15% ahead of McCain, the calls will start to come for Wesley Clark. The final xyz scenario next year some time could well be Wesley Clark vs. Giuliani. And in that race, Clark could very well save the day and save the Democrats from self destruction.

I am certain that Mike Bloomberg will stay out of a Clark/Giuliani race. There is a possibility of Mitt Romney rising as well but the same applies to him. Bloomberg will also stay out of a Clark vs. Romney race.

Rudi Giuliani entered our world out of human tragedy. What 9/11 did was bring America to where it very suddenly required real leadership for survival (not "just anybody" as we have today in the Democratic lineup). That is, people who are born-in-the-bone leaders. Giuliani is a leader like that and so is Bloomberg and so is Wes Clark.

But it takes a long process of denial for the people as a whole to get to that true leader - we are going from the Fantasy Island of dotcom undercapitalized entrepreneurs – a world projected where stocks will go up to 35,000 and everyone will be millionaires (and sadly, these were projections by the new Goldman Sacks Democrats led today by Hillary), to blood in the streets and bodies falling before our eyes a hundred stories to their death. It is a major psychological transition and it is the greatest transition we have made since World War II.

Giuliani responded instinctively to 9/11 - and ordinary people experienced bravery because of him – this is leadership as Sun Tsu explains what leadership is. Bush did not respond that way; he was afraid. Cheney hid under the desk.

In the Democratic lineup, it is only General Clark who expresses this kind of leadership. But this inherent bravery is only the threshold entry to true leadership: The ability to act with clarity and intelligence follows.

In a way, party perennials Hillary vs. McCain are not the unlikely entry level for a race to get started. As Giuliani rises against McCain, urgency will enter in and the formula will change. Clark will be called in to challenge him and bring this race to the next level. This will be a race between Clark and Giuliani.

I'll say this about Bloomberg. If he starts a party it will be a party which will be here to stay. He is not a maverick like Ross Perot (in the post-war period, third party has already gone through its "monkey god" or creation phase, so people don't have to get used to this transition).

Bloomberg is prompted to act by citizenship but by market analysis as well. He has the smarts and intuition of the very best. Hillary vs. McCain is simply old product. By any corporate marketing standard, new ventures are suggested.


Anonymous said...

Very interesting and thoughtful analysis.

In 2004, I was a Clark supporter for exactly the reasons you mention in this and earlier posts (okay I admit it... I was also a Dean supporter). I am reluctant to support anyone from the Senate as this is not an Excective position.

At the time (2004), Clark seemed to be the only with the intellect and leadership qualities to lead this country. I hope your analysis is correct and he runs again.

Or Bloomberg... I could support him also.

I've added a link to your page high on my favorites list.



Anonymous said...

I read your analysis many weeks after the fact. Do you still feel Clark will get into the race? Is there enough money and supporters out there to survive?

Anonymous said...